Maps: Biden’s Electoral Vulnerability in 2024
A mounting number of polls show Joe Biden’s continued support for Israel, even in the face of the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling that South Africa has brought a plausible case of genocide against the State of Israel, is putting his reelection chances in serious jeopardy. This is in spite of running against Donald Trump, possibly the most polarizing politician of all time, in a rematch of the 2020 election.
Across the US and in each state, it can be helpful to visualize how smaller groups within a voting coalition can play a major role in deciding an election, especially in the US with the electoral college system.
The two groups in the Democratic coalition that are most isolated by the Biden administration’s actions are young voters and Arab American voters. Poll after poll have shown members of these groups are deeply unhappy with the president, specifically because of his policy towards Israel and support for their genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza. These maps look back on the 2020 election at the role young voters and Arab Americans played in Biden’s victory over Trump. It is probable that like 2020, the 2024 election will hinge on a handful of swing states decided by narrow margins.
Young voters in the Democratic party are, on average, the most progressive. In the 2020 primaries they were more aligned with Bernie Sanders but came over to vote for Joe Biden in the general election. They are also a group that are less likely to vote and less committed to the Democratic Party than older demographics. Voters under 30 made up approximately a fifth of the total votes cast by Democrats in each state in 2020.
In the states that Biden won, when the role young voters played is translated into the percent of the Democratic margin of victory, it is clear that they played a major role in Joe Biden’s victory. In the swing states (hihglighted in red) where Biden carried the states by narrow margins, young voters make up many multiples of the victory margin. This should be cause for alarm in the Biden camp. There is very little wiggle room. Ignoring the widely popular calls for a ceasefire and change in tack on foreign policy from such a critical section of the coalition is unlikely to inspire young voters to come out to vote. Relying on solely anti-Trump attitudes is a risky strategy when voters do not feel that their voices are heard.
The members of the Arab American community have been making their opinions on Joe Biden clear in recent weeks. Arab American mayors and community groups in Michigan have refused to meet with Biden and some have pledged not to vote for him. Key states that Biden will likely need to win in 2024 have Arab American populations that are vital to the Democratic coalition. They helped carry Biden across the line in Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona in 2020 when 59% of Arab Americans backed him over Trump.
At the time, Trump with his Muslim ban and general racism and Islamophobia made the decision easy for many. Now, it is Biden with his open support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza, the dismissal of Palestinian deaths and apparent disregard for their humanity, and the increase in Islamophobia under his watch that makes it likely that many voters will not see the point in voting for either candidate.
What’s more, Palestinian American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) remains popular in her district and has been one of the few outspoken representatives calling for peace and an end to the slaughter since the beginning of Israel’s genocidal response to the Hamas uprising and attacks on October 7. She has been forceful in her condemnation of Biden’s response to the situation and early on made it clear that Arab Americans would not forget his actions. That was an early warning but one which Biden ignored and instead went full steam ahead.
It is imporant to note that while the data used and percentages noted in the maps above are estimates, they are still somewhat conservative estimates of the total electoral vulnerability that Biden is exposing himself to. The majority of Democratic voters under the age of 35 and even under the age of 40 are unhappy with the administration’s policy. Many voters across demographics do not want the United States to get invovled in a new war in the Middle East. The bombing campaigns in Yemen and Syria, and US troops being attacked (and in some cases killed) in Jordan, Iraq, and around the region, are worrying signs that the US is being dragged into a more serious regional war and is seemingly doing so in order to avoid placing any real pressure on Israel to comply with international law.
All of this is to say that Biden may be isolating many more voters than the groups highlighted in the maps above. At the same time, Trump’s unpopularity and chaotic first term (to put it mildly), along with a range of important domestic issues from labor to abortion rights, are going to test the priorities for voters in swing states when they go to the polls. As local elected officials, voters, and community advocates are saying, it is up to Biden to listen to voters and make a case for them to come out to vote for him. Based on the current trends, relying on the unpopularity of Trump is unlikely to be enough in key states.